The Outlook for Spain and the Eurozone

Since the end of 2010, your thesis has been that Germany would yield to the pressure of its EU partners and embrace expansive monetary policy (like the issuance of eurobonds) once the periphery countries complied with some painful reforms. How well has reality conformed to what you foresaw at that time?

José Ramón Iturriaga: The approach to solving the European crisis hasn’t been quite showy, but it’s been very effective. The structural reforms undertaken were unthinkable just a few years ago. In Spain, in particular, the production model has been turned upside down. The competitiveness gains, as a consequence of the reduction in labor costs, have laid the foundations for much healthier growth, with less exposure to cycles and greater potential.

Besides, the fact that the drunk drivers have been removed from the financial system — not all the cajas [Spanish savings and loans] but all of them cajas — constitutes a turning point for the Spanish financial system and economy.

Obviously, we could have gone further with the reforms. But there is no doubt that in structural terms, progress has been greater in the last four years than in the previous 40.

Leer la entrevista completa de Gustavo Teruel para el blog de CFA Institute (en inglés).

Fuente: Blog Enterprising Investor de CFA.

José Ramón Iturriaga
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